As the automakers' year ticks down, one analyst is forecasting significantly lower sales compared to last year.
J.D. Power and Associates is projecting new-vehicle retail sales to end 2008 at 10.8 million units, 2 million fewer than 2007.
"Buyers are both voluntarily and involuntarily exiting the U.S. new-vehicle market," said Jeff Schuster, executive director of automotive forecasting for J.D. Power and Associates. "The additional decline in expected vehicle sales is a function of growing concerns around availability of credit and leasing, declines in vehicle equity and general economic stress."
Part of the decline comes from consumers altering their behavior. On average, drivers are keeping their cars 71 months -- four months longer than 2007.
Another part of the decline comes from from reduced leasing activity and a reduction in fleet sales, which are expected to fall to 2.8 million units, well below the 3.3 million of 2007.
Market uncertainty has also led to a downward revision of the J.D. Power and Associates 2009 U.S. light-vehicle forecast. Total new light-vehicle sales are expected to drop to 13.2 million units in 2009, with the retail sales market declining to 10.6 million units.
"Falling trade-in equity, fewer leasing options, credit market restructuring and the increased migration to used vehicles are all putting added pressure on the U.S. new-vehicle sales market in 2009," said Schuster. "Any truly pronounced recovery appears to be more than 18 months away."
